By: Doug Rosen
The EUR/USD is looking bearish to me today. Beginning my analysis with a brief look at the weekly chart it is very obvious price has been in a downtrend. We have been getting a series of lower highs and lower lows. Recently this pair made a reverse fib to the upside but this fib did not hold up and price seem to be dropping. Price is currently below the 5 ema and the 5 ema is below the 13 and all this indicates that price is on its way down.
Moving on to the daily chart it is also very obvious that the last couple of candles seem to have lower highs and lower lows, however it may seem subtle, price is obviously making its way down. The fact that price is within a reverse fib zone to the upside is slowing price for dropping, however, price is riding the 5 ema down and the 5 ema has crossed below the 13 and 21 ema's.
Looking at the 4 hour chart price seems to be in a range. It is below the ema's so this time frame is still in a downtrend but price is moving slow. Price is currently sitting on the monthly central pivot point at 1.3749 which is overlapped with a trend line. I really want to see price break this zone but the ema's are clumped together indicating there is very little speed and momentum at this time.
Continuing on to the hourly time frame, just like the higher time frames price is below the ema's and the 5 ema is crossing below the 13 and 21. The Bollinger bands however are very narrow displaying low market volatility for this pair. Price is below the weekly central pivot point and the 5 ema is crossing below it as well, possibly preventing price from rising back above it. In order for this pair to make a decent drop, the lower Bollinger band will have to open to the downside, currently this band is closed.
Finally, I take a look at the 15 minute chart we have had a 5 ema cross below the 13, 21 and 55 and the lower Bollinger band on this time frame is beginning to shift open. Price is also below the daily central pivot point so a down day looks very probable. As a further confirmation, the USD/CHF is bullish indicating a strong USD and the EUR/GBP is bearish indicating a weak EUR so EUR/USD shorts is what I will be watching for .