By: Doug Rosen
The GBP/USD pair is a bit of a mixed bag today. Sure it looks bearish to me and as weak as the EUR has been as of lately the GBP even weaker. At the same time it seems that the USD will pick up some more strength today since the USD/CHF is at a fib level overlapped with a central pivot point and a stochastics in the oversold zone I expect a USD jump so a bullish USD/CHF and a bullish EUR/GBP indicate a bearish GBP/USD.
What does bug me a bit however is the 50.0 fib level of the recent move up for this pair on the daily timeframe as well as the stochastics in the oversold zone which indicates bullish price action, however, this pair is spaced a ways from the 5 ema and needs to bounce up a bit to get to the 5 ema at which time more bears will then enter the market to short this pair so a bounce up is what we just may need to take this pair short.
On the 4 hour timeframe the stochastics is in the oversold zone and price seems to be working itself above the 5 ema which will boost it to the 13 ema where I expect price to get some downward pressure.
If price breaks through the 13 ema thent he 21 ema stands not to far above and is overlapped with the monthly central pivot point at 1.5837 On the hourly timeframe price seems to be drifting up and the 5 ema is trying to cross above the 13 ema and the stochastics is pointing up but at this time has reached the weekly S2 at 1.5764 where price is having a fight.
Finally, on the 15 minute timeframe price has close to the 144 ema overlapped with the daily M3 at 1.5776 and has been rejected and price is currently just below the daily central pivot point at 1.5757 Possibly price will fib and continue upward offering us a better opportunity to enter a short, otherwise, price will keep falling and I would wait for a break below the daily S1 at 1.5690 to look for a short entry.