By: Doug Rosen
A few weeks ago after price reacted to the 50.0 fib level of its previous move down on the weekly time frame and bounced down the Swissy made a reverse fib almost to the 38.2 level and it seems like it will keep going back to the upside and will not pause before it reached that 50.0 fib level once again. One thing is for sure, if it breaks through the 50.0 fib level there will still be a bounce first and then we will see if it rises and breaks through that level. On the daily time frame price is now approaching the 78.6 reverse fib level of the previous swing low. The 78.6 level is a very important level since it is the last fib level that offers an entry. The 78.6 fib level is the cheapest area to enter a trade and a trader does not need to set a stop loss too much higher than that to get in an entry, in this case a possible short but I expect price to break the 78.6 level, after all, price is riding the 5 ema and the upper Bollinger band is opening up to the upside and separation between the ema's are beginning to develop.
On the 4 hour time frame we recently had a 5 ema cross above the 13 ema and the 5 ema is rising up steeply. The monthly R1 at .9196 is the next monthly fib level and the weekly R1 exists at .9155 and the daily R1 is at .9129 so that would be the next area to see some resistance and more than likely find an entry point.
On the hourly time frame price is riding the 5 ema upside and the upper Bollinger band is open steeply to the upside.
