By: Doug Rosen
This week has been a very interesting week for the EUR/USD. Price has broken a strong area of visual support and has made its retracement to the upside, has nearly made contact with the daily 5 ema and is now ready to drop.
The correlation between the EUR/USD and the Swissy is nearly perfect, however, they are opposites. Always remember, if the EUR/USD is bouncing off support then the USD/CHF should be bouncing off resistance. Never take a long off of EUR/USD support if the USD/CHF is not at resistance over the same timeframes. Always pay close attention to currency correlation as well as correlation over multiple timeframes; if you want to stay ahead of the curve. So the USD/CHF appears bullish to me today based on my technical's, I feel very comfortable considering shorts for EUR/USD.
On the 4 hour timeframe price the 50.0 fib of the previous swing down overlaps with the 13 ema and price touched it and is now beginning to fall.
On the hourly timeframe the 55 ema was at the same level as the 4 hour 13 ema so the overlap between the two timeframes and ema's helped each other out and pushed price down.
At the time I am writing this analysis the 5 ema is crossing below the 13 and 21 which is a very bearish signal. So, watch for short opportunities for this pair and watch out around 1.2855 area for surely there will be profit taking at that level causing a bounce to the upside. That same level also coincides with yesterdays low, monthly S2 Pivot and weekly S2. For those of you that don't make that short look to fade that fall and look for long opportunities at that level as well. If price breaks below that level, wait for the retest and enter a short. I personally don't dig profit targets so much. I generally prefer to move my stops and keep moving them protecting more and more profit until I finally get stopped out.
Included is my Support and Resistance table referred to as Doug's Matrix. Start with the higher timeframes and correlate the levels with the lower timeframes and it will get you into profitable trades and keep you out of the losing trades.