By: Doug Rosen
Yesterday was quite a day for the EUR/GBP. It took me by surprise since the volatility was very low and the market simply went from one extreme to the other. I think the big move yesterday was mostly due to fundamentals and Switzerland and the Swiss pairs were mostly effected. I must admit, I wasn't ready for yesterday's moves. The EUR/GBP had a 49 pip range.
On the weekly time frame price made it's way to the bottom support line I pointed out a couple days ago and bounced just as I said it would. On the daily time frame price fell to my support line at .8353 and wicked it just a bit and has bounced up since then. The daily candle is now getting very close to the 5 ema and probably close enough so technically it can continue to drop further but price is up against strong support so this time frame could head up to the daily 13 ema. If it falls below .8350 then for sure it will be another down day for this pair. The stochastics is in the oversold zone on both the weekly and daily time frames.
On the 4 hour time frame price is making its way back up to the triangle price trap it broke out of yesterday and so far it has made a fib and has touched the 13 ema. Technically price could start to roll back down. This pair has much resistance above it so I would expect it to fall than to go rise.
On the hourly time frame price has made it back to resistance that was previously support that was broken and this could just be a retracement back to the scene of the crime (breakout) and it could be where price will begin to fall again and this level coincides with last week's low of .8372 and is just below the 55 ema and upper Bollinger band, very bearish indications, especially when you add in the fib it has made.
On the 15 minute time frame price went up near the 233 ema which also has an R1 daily pivot point just above and was rejected. I would be watching for shorts. If price was to rise and break above .8380 I would wait for a retest and take a long. Most likely barring any news announcements I expect this pair to continue downward.
