By: Doug Rosen
This pair is a tough read for me today. Based on correlation I am bullish for this pair, however, the technicals are looking bearish. Since yesterday the market has been very unpredictable, and with the Non-Farm Payroll coming out on Friday the market will behave in strange ways.
Based on the raw technicals, on the daily, time frame price is making a 50.0 fib of the last swing low and it is overlapped with a 21 ema so that is bearish in itself, yet at the same time the stochastics is in the oversold zone crossing up and the daily 5 ema is below price lifting it up and looking like it wants to cross above the 13 ema, a very bullish sign. So I guess we are in a bit of a struggle at this level.
On the 4 hour time frame price has been heading up but has run into the 144 ema so resistance is expected at that level. The 5 ema is still below price carrying it up.
On the hourly time frame price has been riding the 13 ema upward very gracefully but has retraced down to the 21 ema which I expect will send price back up.
On the 15 minute time frame price has been looking bullish but has retraced down a bit and has come down to the 55 ema which is at the same level as the hourly 21 ema and price seems to be bouncing upward.
Today the EUR/JPY is closely correlated with the GBP/USD and the USD/CAD so watch those pairs carefully as well. The daily M3 pivot is the next likely area of resistance at 104.53 and the weekly M4 is at the exact same level and the monthly central pivot which is overlapped with the 233 ema is at 105.02 At the time I write this up current price is at 104.40 This pair will be no fun to trade based on what I see.