By: Doug Rosen
Yesterday was a very unexpected day for the EUR/USD. I was not even ready for it. It took me way off guard. This pair is barely moving 6 pips in a 4 hour period and less than 50 pips a day on the average this past week then all of a sudden it tanks 168 pips.
Just yesterday I was saying price was sitting on support and you can only think bullish until price hits the 21 ema then to look at shorts but price touched the 13 ema then tanked right through support and didn't look back. Of course this was not a technical move in any way at all, it was due to the Swiss news that was released yesterday morning. Now I am thinking that price needs to retrace a bit and make a fib from yesterday's drop then continue to head downside.
On the 4 hour timeframe price is below the 5 ema and still within the Bollinger bands so there is no reason this pair has to stop falling.
On the hourly timeframe price is making its retracement to the upside so that it can continue to head downward. The 38.2 fib of yesterdays dive is at 1.2961 and at the time I am writing this analysis price is at 1.2940 The 21 ema is just below the 38.2 fib.
On the 15 minute timeframe price is touching the 55 ema. I would like to see price climb up to 1.2975 which is the daily central pivot point precisely overlapped with the 50.0 fib of yesterdays range.
That would be the perfect area to look at shorts if price were to make it to that level. If price were to break above the 15 minute 55 ema, say above 1.2947, it would be conceivable to look for scalps to the upside until we reach 1.2975 then look to take the short.
