By: Doug Rosen
Yesterday the Swissy took a dive. As with the other pairs, yesterday's big move was mostly fueled by the ECB and had very little to do with technical analysis. Technically, I had no doubts price would fall and I mentioned that in my analysis yesterday.
This pair recently made a double top on the daily chart and the 5 ema was rolling over to the downside so I expected bearish price action to occur. Price also broke out below the daily trend line I had drawn and price is currently below that line. It could move up a bit for a retest but doesn't have to.
On the 4 hour time frame price has made a 50.0 fib from the drop and price can start to fall at anytime. Price is riding below the ema's and the 13 ema just crossed below the 55 ema.
Moving on to the hourly time frame price has come up to the 21 ema and was rejected and the stochastics is pointing down.
On the 15 minute time frame price is still range bound but just below the 55 ema. Price is below the daily central pivot point at .9147 and below the weekly S1 pivot at .9165 and last week's low is at .9106 and the monthly central pivot is at .9071 The
Swissy is very closely correlated today with the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and the GBP/USD so be sure to keep an eye on the correlating pairs when doing your analysis of the Swissy. Based on my analysis this pair has a bearish ring to it. Remember, this is the week of Non-Farm Payrolls and is the day after a robust move so thinner than usual trading conditions exist.