The USD seems to be picking up momentum against numerous pairs lately, including the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY daily chart has been descending since hitting a 12 month high on March 15th of this year at 84.17, but has fallen and now bounced off of the 61.8% retracement level at 79.80 +/- and has also broken a descending trend-line that has held for 60 days with today's price action, but whether or not it will hold outside of this line is too soon to call. Above the current price of 80.34, we have a solid S/R zone at 80.50 that has established itself as a important level several times since October 2010, as well as the 62 DMA at 80.64 and Weekly Pivot at 80.92. Below the current price, there is something of a vacuum back down to 79.84 and then almost nothing to offer support until the 79.70 level or even the Monthly S1 at 78.668. One scenario is that we see the pair climb to about 81.20 in the next few trading days, then reverse. Or price could easily reverse after re-testing 80.50 and make a new low over the next few days. I am very interested to see how today's price action develops, and will know more after today. For now, I am cautiously Bullish on this pair with possible confirmation coming from price action & the cross of my EMA's, up to at least 80.60. A close above 80.60 will indicate truly Bullish sentiment with my 30 day targets being approximately 82.25.
Happy Trading!