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GBP/AUD Daily Outlook July 19, 2012

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

GBP/AUD had a very bearish session during the Wednesday trading day, which is simply a continuation of the trend that we have seen sense April. While this pair isn't necessarily on the radars of many traders, it does feature two major currencies and as such shouldn't be forgotten. The spread is reasonable, as for myself I pay about 4 1/2 pips, which is certainly doable for me.

It looks like we have broken out of a bearish flag in this pair, and it must be said that the British pound look strong against several currencies at this moment in time. Because of this, it doesn't surprise me that we see bearish continuation in this currency pair, as although the Australian dollar is breaking out higher - the British pound looks like it's building up massive pressure to the upside against the various currencies around the world.

1.5050

I personally see the 1.5050 level as a median of sorts in a thick support level. Obviously, the 1.50 level will attract a lot of traders as a large round number, but I feel that it's probably more of a 100 pip thick zone. This is why I have the 1.5050 marked on the chart, it simply a "balance point" if you will.

GBPAUD Daily 71912

However, I do see the bearish action in this pair and believe that eventually we do break down. Is because of this that I haven't placed a trade yet, but I am very interested in some 1.50 prices. This is one of those situations where simply watching the market for a couple days could be very profitable. Once we get that breakdown, we can go much lower. In fact, taste upon the bearish flag that I have on this chart, we should be looking at another 500 pips or so from the breakout we saw today. That gives me roughly a target of 1.46 or so. With this being said, there's obviously plenty of room to the downside in this pair and as it is obviously with the trend I am more than willing to take this trade. As for buying, this seems like a very risky proposition at this point in time. In fact, I'm not very interested in selling the British pound against much at this point.

Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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