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EUR/USD Daily Outlook - Mar. 11, 2013

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

EUR/USD found itself falling again during the Friday session, as the weakness in the Euro continues. This market has been essentially straight down, but the 1.30 level continues to offer support. I believe that this area is very significant to the long-term implications of trend in this market, and that it also extends down to the 1.29 area as well. This is why the sellers have not been able to break this level; it is simply to "thick", which of course means major.

We did manage to make a new low, although it was for a very brief moment. This was mainly because of the US nonfarm payroll numbers coming out at 265,000 jobs added for the month of February. This all more money flowing from your of and into the United States as there is a lot of mistrust and confusion about the debt markets in Europe at the moment. After all, nothing truly has been solved that problem.

Selling the rallies

Essentially, I am going to watch this pair and only sell rallies at this point. Because of this, a breakdown of the last thing I want to see, and I would welcome more consolidation between 1.2975 and 1.3150. I just simply going to sell this pair every time it rallies, and let it and that that. This way, I have the ability to take advantage of a breakdown of 1.30 if we get momentum, but at the same time not find myself selling at the absolute bottom. Also, in order to break down the 1.30 level, we will need more people the pile when and push this pair down.

EURUSD Daily

Ultimately, I believe that this pair does finally breakdown a bit based upon the idea that things truly are getting better in the United States, while Europe is heading towards recession for the next year or two. There of course will be bounces, but I still think that based upon the action that we've seen lately, those will simply be opportunities to sell the euro a higher level. It isn't until we break above the 1.3250 level that I am couple buying this market.

Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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