The AUD/USD has been falling more or less since April 10th and from the 15th until today the pair has been trading in a descending channel seen clearly on the 4 hour time frame. Now, that channel has been broken with a 4 hour close outside this channel at 1.03089 only moments ago. The question is, is this going to continue or is it a fake out before a bearish continuation? Resistance immediately above is at 1.03285 (Daily R2/April 18 Highs) and the Weekly Pivot at 1.03547. The Weekly Pivot level has been a strong support/resistance level historically speaking, and a reversal from 1.0350 would not surprise this trader at all. We may infact be forming a bearish head & shoulders on the daily chart, and a retest of 1.0350 could be the beginning of the right shoulder. Above this level we have more resistance at 1.0370 especially 1.0415, another strong historical level. To the downside we see support at the (now support) Daily R1 of 1.0297 and Daily Pivot at 1.0264 before a retest of the lows at 1.0220 which, if broken could see another free fall to the 1.0100 area.
Happy Trading!