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USD/JPY Daily Outlook- May 21, 2013

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The USD/JPY pair fell during the Monday session, perhaps taking a break from the massive bullishness that we have seen as of late. However, the 102 level held as support during the day, and there is a cluster of noise right around that area. I don't know whether or not this would hold, but I do recognize the fact that we have broken out of an ascending triangle that now needs to be retested as support.

USD CAD  May 21

Quite often, when you break out of the triangle you return to the side of the breakout to see if it turned into the opposite force that once was. In this particular case, the 100 level would be resistance that turns into support. Since we haven't done that, there is a possibility that we drift lower. For the first time in a while, I can honestly say I am flat of shorting the Yen. This of course includes this pair, and as a result I think waiting for a supportive candle is the way to go.

Buying the dips

I am effectively buying the dips in this pair going forward, although most people don't understand that buying the dips can sometimes mean waiting for days on end. I believe that if we get a breakdown here, somewhere near the 100 level will be an excellent opportunity to get involved again. If we do not get a supportive candle, and we essentially drift higher, I will more than likely go long again somewhere just above where we are now, but in reality I think given the action that we saw in the stock markets around America, there is a very highly likely chance that this pair will pullback.

The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all forms shooting stars for the session on Monday. This particular currency pair tends to follow the stock markets over time, and as a result I think that we are going to have a pullback for the next couple of days in not only the stock markets, but possibly this pair. Either way, it was enough to get me out of the long position that I had been in. Of course, I fully intend on going long again and again.

Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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