The WTI Crude Oil market initially fell during the session on Thursday, but you can see that it found enough support at the $95.00 level in order to bounce. The bounce rose all the way above the $96.50 level, and as a result the market actually closed higher than the resistance level that had kept the markets lower lately. That being said, there is a significant amount of resistance just above as well, and I don't feel that there is a whole lot of room for the markets to move in right now.
Also, this is a Friday session. It should be noted that a lot of traders have no interest in carrying risk over the weekend, as they simply cannot react to headlines. Although Syria does not produce oil, anything bad in the Middle East of course can give the oil market jitters. Also, we have be risk assets around the world selling off randomly, it is another reason to perhaps go into the weekend flat. With that in mind, I do not expect a breakout in the next 24 hours.
That's okay, I've been wrong before
There of course is the possibility that we do breakout, but I would need to see the $97.50 level cleared in order to be convinced of it. Until that happens, I just find this market far too tight to start buying. I think there is more risk on the downside than the up, at least in the very short-term. Alternately, market forces will take over in supply and demand will be what drives prices again.
I think that the daily close for the session today will be very important for the future direction. This is especially true if we managed to gain during the session but failed to hold on to those gains. I still at this point time believe that the $92.00 level is the bottom of the greater consolidation area that we are currently pressing the top of the moment. Because of this, if we do get some type of resistive candle appear, I would be willing to go ahead and start shorting this market as we are so close to the top.
