The EUR/USD pair rose rapidly during the session on Wednesday, as the FMOC released the minutes from the last month’s meeting, suggesting that several of the members weren't quite ready to taper off on quantitative easing. In fact, they are concerned about employment rate, and that is not conducive to cutting back on it. That being the case, I still think this market will eventually run into trouble above, after all we are comparing Europe to North America.
Looking forward though, I still have the red downtrend line from the weekly chart that this market needs to break in order to get strong enough to seriously consider buying. Nonetheless, I recognize the fact that this market could very well continue higher, but you’re chasing the trade at this point in time if you're willing to buy up here. Since then, I want to see the market form a reversal signal in order to start selling again, as the trend is definitely to the downside.
All that being said, I hate this pair
This pair has been an absolute nightmare for about two years for me. It just simply chomps around and seems like it can't make up its mind as to where it wants to go. Because of that, I have to admit that I treated less and less these days, as it simply is too erratic, and far too headline driven.
I still believe that the US dollar will continue to strengthen, but a severe correction is probably on the table. That being the case, I believe that this market will eventually find its way back down below the 1.30 level, but expect to see a bit of choppiness between now and then. I personally think that any trade at this point time, you simply have to be careful buying up here because of the ridiculous move that we sold during the Wednesday session. After all, you have to start to think who is left to buy this pair? That being the case, I'm going to be patient, and sell the first reversal signal that I see just above.