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EUR/USD: Losing Momentum, Still Bullish

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

Here are a few highlights of the relevant predictions I made in my last analysis of EUR/USD last Monday:

1. The outlook is now bullish.
2. The surest move of the coming week or so is likely to be bullish, targeting last week's high of 1.3205.
3. There is some natural support at around 1.30 which looks like a good area to look for longs, should price retrace there before reaching 1.3205 first.

I got it right: within just a few hours, the price dipped a little below 1.30 and then made a fairly strong bullish move, peaking Tuesday night at 1.3173.

EUR/USD Chart 1 July 18

Looking at the daily chart, we can see that Tuesday produced a strong bullish reversal, following the long lower wicks of the previous three days, which were all contained within the range of the previous bullish reversal candle on 10th July:

EUR/USD Chart 2 July 18

Although Tuesday's bullish reversal was just broken to the upside the next day, there is little bullish momentum. So, although the overall picture remains bullish, again we need to drop down to the hourly chart for more clues as to what is really going on with this pair:

EUR/USD Chart 3 July 18

Resistance became support at 1.3050, however the price has been falling off since Tuesday night. It still seems the impetus for now is slightly bullish.

Therefore the rest of this week it is advisable to look for longs at bullish reversals around the 1.3050 and 1.30 areas where there is support for now. If the price falls to the 1.29 area soon, I would expect a potentially very good long trade to set up there.

If the price does not break 1.3205 before this week's close, it would be a sign of a pause in the bullish momentum.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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