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AUD/USD Daily Outlook - August 1, 2013

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The AUD/USD pair fell during the session on Wednesday, breaking through the 0.90 handle. This level has been significant support as you can see, and now that we are closing below it, I feel that the Australian dollar will continue to feel pressure and perhaps go as low as the 0.85 handle. Because of this, I feel that selling the Aussie is the only thing you can do, and quite frankly that's how it's been for some time. It makes sense, because Asia is hurting right now, and commodities are seriously weak.

This is especially true in the gold markets, which of course has a fairly strong effect on the Australian dollar. Now that we have broken down, the initial move should be roughly 300 pips, and possibly even lower given enough time. That being the case, I think that selling is the only way to go, as I think there will be significant profits to be made doing so.

AUD/USD Daily Chart Aug 1

The Federal Reserve punts

The Federal Reserve punted as far as the minutes were concerned during the session on Wednesday, and as a result the markets probably have no idea what to do. That being the case, I feel that the market will probably air on the side of safety, and therefore continue by the US dollar, especially as the Australian dollar. Quite frankly, I feel that any rally in this pair is probably an open invitation to sell the Australian dollar at a larger rate, especially as long as we are below the 0.93 handle.

Above there, I see significant resistance of the 0.95 handle as well, and because of that I think that there are plenty of selling opportunities ahead. Again though, if we broke the bottom of the Wednesday range, that's a sell signal as well. Quite frankly, I have absolutely no scenario in which I want to buy the Aussie dollar, and more than enough that I want to sell it. Because of that, I will be looking to sell as often as possible and add to any positions.

Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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