The WTI Crude Oil markets rose during the session on Friday as you can see, 2 1/2 months now. That being the case, it looks like we're going to continue the "summer grind", and as a result I think that simply trading small positions back and forth from the bottom, which is roughly the $103 level, to the top, which is roughly the $108 level is the way to go. Until we reach September one the Federal Reserve makes its actions known about quantitative easing, this market will probably fail the test when it comes to finding traction in either direction.
Of course, I'm getting bored talking about the Federal Reserve, but this time of year there is very little else going on to move the markets. Right now you have a lot of large traders away for the holiday, so there isn't a lot in the way of volume to move the markets in one direction or the other. That being said, you could possibly play this from the options markets, simply betting on the range being held, but quite frankly I feel if you have the ability to trade the CFD market you may want to go that route, as you can play smaller positions quite easily.
September 15, or so.
I think it might be somewhere near the middle of September before we get any real clarity as far as what the Federal Reserve is about to do regarding quantitative easing. That of course has a massive effect on the US dollar, which of course has a massive effect on this market. It'll be interesting to see how things play out, but right now it appears the market is coiled to go higher, but there is a significant amount resistance above $100, and probably stay all the way to the $110 level. That is an area that can be difficult to overcome, but if the Federal Reserve does in fact not taper off in September or October as a people were speculating now, is really not a whole lot to keep oil from going through the $110 level. Of course, the exact opposite is true as well.
