The WTI Crude Oil markets took off during the session on Friday in response to the nonfarm payroll numbers coming out of the United States. The numbers were disappointing, and this has traders out there thinking that the Federal Reserve may not be able to taper off of quantitative easing in the next month or two. This of course hurt the value of the US dollar, which of course this market is priced in. Obviously, that means that it takes less of those Dollars in order to buy the contract.
As you can see, the $110 level was targeted during the session. The recent high at the $112 level is without a doubt the target for the market right now, but the day that we hit that level the market will back and formed a shooting star. Obviously, that is a very resistive looking candle, and as a result there might be a bit of a struggle to get above that area.
The Federal Reserve and its decision
The Federal Reserve will eventually make the decision, and make it known to the markets. If they do in fact taper off of quantitative easing, you can expect the Dollar to skyrocket in value, and oil markets will more than likely get pummeled. There are other things to pay attention to when it comes to the value of oil anyway, mainly headlines coming out of the Middle East.
The Syrian situation will continue to push the markets around, as traders worry about a larger scale war in the Middle East. The Egyptian situation is still one that we have to worry about as well, as it can have an effect on whether or not the Suez Canal remains open. In reality, more than likely these will be headlines that come and go, and the Federal Reserve will eventually move this market. With that being said, if we can get above the $112 level, I am a buyer as we should hit the $115 level. As far as selling is concerned, I have no interest in doing so at the moment.
