The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the session on Monday, but as you can see fell and formed a shooting star. What I find interesting about this is that the nonfarm payroll numbers come out later today, and as a result I think the entire world will be looking at the value the US dollar at the end of the session. That sets up the possibility of a significant move higher, but the shooting star suggests to me that we may actually see a little bit of a pullback in the meantime. I think that this pullback will attract buyers who have missed the rally, and as a result I think that the 0.95 level should continue to be rather supportive.
In fact, I believe that we are going to parity in this currency pair relatively soon, as this pair does tend to take off rather rapidly. Shorting this market is not a possibility although I do recognize the fact that we could drop 100 pips in the short term. That of course is going to be predicated upon the nonfarm payroll numbers, which I do not anticipate to be very positive for the US dollar.
Don't forget gold markets
Gold and the Australian dollar 10 the walk hand-in-hand over the longer term, and I believe that will be true in this case as well. After all, if we get poor jobs numbers, the US dollar will get pummeled in gold should rise. If that's the case, then the Australian dollar would catch a bid in my opinion. Because of this, I think that pullbacks will offer buying opportunities going forward, and I would not hesitate at all to buy a supportive candle. In fact, I have already put calls in the options market, and will be looking to add to that in the spot market as well given the right signal.
As for selling is concerned, I think we have quite a bit of support all the way down to the 0.93 handle, and therefore am very hesitant to do so at any point.
