The NZD/USD pair fell during the session on Thursday, which is a bit ironic considering that the US dollar should be in trouble. The New Zealand dollar of course is a commodity currency, so this would've been in line with the general weakness that we saw in the commodity markets, although it should be noted that the Kiwi dollar is more of an agricultural currency than a hard commodity currency, and as a result it quite often is used as a simple gauge of sentiment when it comes to commodities more than any type of particular correlation likely see with the Australian dollar and the gold markets.
On top of that, the New Zealand dollar is a bit thinly traded when it is compared to some of the other major currencies around the world, for that matter even being considered a minor currency by some traders. This is a bit up for debate, quite frankly I think of it as the seventh major pair.
0.83 still matters.
As far as I can tell, there seem to be quite a bit of support down at the 0.83 level. The New Zealand dollar has found resistance and support at this level time and time again, and should continue to see a reaction in this general vicinity. That being said, I do believe that the support is a zone, and not some type of quick line. That being the case we should see support all the way down to the 0.82 level, an area that previously had been very supportive as recently as early this month.
Going forward, I would expect a bounce in this general vicinity, but unless we get a daily close below the 0.82 handle, I do not see an opportunity to sell this market. Quite frankly I'm just sitting on the sidelines waiting for some type of supportive candle, perhaps a hammer or something of that ilk to get me long of this market again. It makes sense of the 0.85 level did in fact offer enough resistance to push the market down, after all it is a large round psychologically significant number. Eventually though, it would not surprise me at all to see the New Zealand dollar move up to 0.90 to the US dollar.
