The AUD/USD pair fell during the session on Friday, as it remains below the 0.95 handle. That being the case, the market looks like it's basically being held underneath that level, which of course is very resistive. The nonfarm payroll numbers came out on Friday, and of course they were stronger than anticipated which of course drives up the value of the US dollar in general. We closed at the 0.9379 level, which is still well above the 0.93 support region that I've been watching. Because of this I think there is still a chance that the Australian dollar continues higher, and perhaps bounce all the way to the 0.95 handle, starting a new consolidation zone.
If we do bounce enough to break above the 0.9550 level, the market should go ahead and grind higher to the 0.97 level. That area opens the gateway to the parity level, but I think it's going to take a lot to send it that way, and as a result I expect to see more weakness in the near-term as the US dollar should continue to appreciate against most currencies.
Watch the gold markets
Gold markets fell below the $1300 level on Friday, and as a result the Australian dollar fell in tandem with that market. This tends to happen over and over again, and as a result this doesn't surprise me. However, the 0.93 level does look to be relatively supportive, and as a result I am willing to buy supportive candles in the general vicinity, and take a short-term long position. However, if we close well below the 0.93 handle, I am more than willing to sell this market as it should head down to the 0.90 handle over the course of the next couple of weeks.
Do not expect this move to be smooth though, we no matter which one it takes. This is because there is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace now, and as a result I may actually start to play the Australian dollar through the options market simply selling calls above current market rates as a way to build up my account slowly.
