The WTI Crude Oil markets did almost nothing during the session on Thursday, but remains true to the idea that the $96 level is going to continue to be supportive. The candle is fairly neutral, but I believe that there will be a certain amount of support underneath there in order to keep the market somewhat supportive. The real question of course is whether or not we can break down but whether or not we can break down below the $95 level, which I feel is the bottom of the support area.
Going forward, I believe that we could see a little bit of a move higher, but we do not have a supportive candle in order to make a move. If we do move higher though, I think that the $100 level will offer a significant amount of resistance, and as a result I think that we get a supportive candle it will be a short-term move at best.
Value of the US dollar
The US dollar had a strong session on Thursday, and this of course work against the value of the oil markets in general. That being the case, it makes sense that it takes less US dollars to buy oil, and that of course drives price down. Ultimately though, I do start to wonder whether or not we can go much lower, because there is so much noise below and also the fact that sooner or later the value of the dollar being so it will work against the idea of shorting commodities.
All things being equal, I do believe that eventually we try to break above the $100 level, but I think we are far from that happening. Expect a lot of choppiness in the meantime, and as a result it's more or less a short-term traders market. That being the case, you should look for gains of two dollars or so at a time, and nothing more. If we can get above the $101 level though, I think at that point time that this market goes much higher.
