The NZD/USD pair rose during the session on Wednesday, but as you can see failed at the 0.84 handle. The New Zealand dollar continues to look fairly strong though, and as a result I am bullish of this commodity currency. Quite frankly, as the US dollar continues to get beaten-down, it makes sense to me then commodity should do fairly well over the longer term. Granted, we have seen some weakness lately, but I think this is simply going to end up being a nice buying opportunity in the long run.
That being said, I see that the 0.85 level is massively resistant, and the shooting star that formed for the session on Wednesday suggests that we are running into a little bit of trouble. I look at this shooting star as a buying opportunity if we can fall low enough to find support in the vicinity of 0.8250 level. After all, you are essentially getting the Kiwi dollar "on sale."
Federal Reserve will dictate the value the US dollar.
The Federal Reserve will decide whether or not to taper off of quantitative easing based upon employment numbers. They have already said this quite frankly to the markets, and as a result the nonfarm payroll numbers on Friday will be very important. Do not be surprised at all if there is a "risk on" attitude in the marketplace if the jobs numbers poor simply because of all the stimulus that could be flowing into the economies out there. With that being the case, expect the US dollar to depreciate as more bonds will be bought by the central bank.
In that scenario, expect people to want to buy "stuff", or in other words commodities. It might take a little while, but eventually this pair should break above the 0.85 handle. Above there, the market should head to the 0.90 handle, and possibly even higher. The meantime though, I look at pullbacks as a buying opportunity and will treat them as such going forward. Buying supportive candles until we get below the 0.82 handle is my strategy. If we get below the 0.82 handle, that could mean serious trouble for the New Zealand dollar.
