The USD/JPY pair shot straight up during the session on Thursday, breaking well above the 100.50 resistance level. The fact that we have formed a couple of hammers previously, and then broke higher suggests to me that this is an impulsive move in one that we should see continued strength in. I like this market going all the way up to the 105 level over the course of the interim, and as a result I think that if we do get a pullback it simply going to be a buying opportunity.
Remember, this is a battle between two central banks and whether or not one of them can taper off of their quantitative easing program. We already know that the Bank of Japan has a long way from doing this, so therefore we understand that this is essentially a question about the Federal Reserve. The move on Thursday was more than likely predicated upon the first-time unemployment claims number being lower than anticipated out of the United States. This of course suggests that the market might be trying to price in a tapering move by the Federal Reserve much sooner than anticipated.
Nonfarm payroll, first-time unemployment numbers, and headlines.
The nonfarm payroll numbers of course will continue to push his market quite drastically. If they disappoint, you can expect a pretty drastic pullback. However, between here and there. I don't see why this market would do so, and first-time unemployment numbers will continue to be used as a barometer of what the market may possibly expect out of the Federal Reserve. Any signs of tapering out of the Federal Reserve gets the market excited, and the Dollar continues to gain against the Yen. After all, the Japanese certainly are nowhere near doing anything.
Pullbacks will be buying opportunities, and I believe that short-term charts can be used to enter the market. I understand that it's a little bit disheartening to see this large candle and try to go along here, but I think even a break of the top of the large range that we saw on Thursday is enough for the markets to propel even higher, and I would be a buyer then as well.
