The WTI Crude Oil markets did very little during the session on Thursday, which would have been expected based upon the fact that the Non-Farm Payroll numbers are due today. This of course will move all markets, and this one will without a doubt be no different.
The employment situation in the United States continues to be what the Federal Reserve is focusing on in order to decide about tapering off of quantitative easing. The Fed has already admitted that it is worried about whether or not the jobs market is strong enough to lay off of the bond buyback program, so the number is going to be vital.
The number coming in stronger than expected should have the US Dollar increasing in strength, which should drive the value of most commodity markets lower, and this one will more than likely fall significantly if this does in fact happen. However, a weaker than anticipated one could send the markets higher as the value of the underlying currency falls in value – thus making the amount of those Dollars needed to buy oil larger.
The OPEC comments and resistance just above.
The OPEC comments earlier in the week suggested that the demand for oil is still strong, and that it sees demand possibly increasing in the near-term. This allows for the market to have an underlying bid, and this should continue to be the theme overall in my opinion. Quite frankly, unless the jobs number is a blowout number, I think this market will be a “buy only” market. We might have to do it at lower prices, but ultimately it should have buyers in it at various points.
As for myself, I would be out of the market until the announcement comes out at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time, as we don’t know how things will shake out. However, as the market falls, I become more and more interested in owning it. The breaking to the upside of the shooting star for the Thursday session would also have me buying as well. Ultimately, I see this market trying to reach the $101 level.
