The EUR/JPY pair went back and forth during the session on Thursday, essentially hugging the 139 handle. This area continues to be a bit of a magnet for price, and I believe that we will see that begin to change after the nonfarm payroll announcement today. After all, this is a risk on, or risk off type of situation, as this pair will rise with risk appetite increasing. The nonfarm payroll numbers will give the market some type of clarity as to whether or not there will be massive amounts of liquidity still available, which of course always drives up asset prices in the long run.
If that happens, expect the stock markets around the world to leave the way, but this pair will without a doubt be reacted to those. In the meantime, I would expect this pair to be relatively quiet, and even a little bit soft going forward.
One-way trade?
Technically speaking, it appears that there is a significant amount of support below at the 137 handle, and in fact, they look strong enough to me that we could possibly see it as a "floor" in this market. Alternately, this market may go sideways for some time, but essentially we needed to rest after the parabolic move higher.
The Japanese yen is continuing to get sold off over the longer term, and I don't think that's going to change. Granted, we could get a little bit of a pullback here, but that should bring out the so-called "value investors" looking to buy the Euro cheaply against the Yen. With that in mind, I believe that this market will essentially be a" one-way trade." Because of this, I have absolutely no plans on selling it, and believe that ultimately we do end up going much higher, and the 140 level gets targeted. If we can get above 140, we could go to 145 over the next couple of months. However, expect as we get a little bit farther into the month for this pair to quiet down as liquidity dries up in the Forex markets overall.
