USD/JPY Signal Update
Monday’s signals were not triggered and expired.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.50% on any trade.
Entry should be made before 8am tomorrow morning London time
Long Trade 1
Enter long at the next bar break of an hourly pin or strong outside bar rejecting and closing above 102.21. If both these levels are not touched and rejected by the same hourly bar, or if an hourly bar closes more than a few pips below both of these levels, the trade is immediately invalidated and should not be taken.
Stop loss at the local swing low or 101.88, depending upon how close the entry is to 102.21. If the entry is very close, then the lower of the two should definitely be used.
Take profit on 75% of the position at 102.64 which should be quite confluent with the (by then) broken higher bullish trend line, move the stop loss to break even, and take half again at 103.00 and then half again at 103.37, leaving the rest to ride.
Long Trade 2
If the price touches 101.65 enter long with a limit order there.
The initial stop loss should be 101.20 but could be moved up if the price moves right possibly with a trailing stop.
Take 75% of the position as profit at 102.15 and move the stop loss to break even. Take half again at 103.00 and then half again at 103.37, leaving the rest to ride.
USD/JPY Analysis
No major data is expected today for the JPY. At 1:30pm London time there is core CPI for USD, therefore it the pair might well be quiet until New York opens later today.
The broad outlook shows that this pair, which has been in a strong uptrend, made a 5-year high on Friday, since when it has fallen off. It had a quiet day yesterday. Although the price is still contained within a long-term bullish channel which has held for about a month now, it has been spending enough time near the lower channel trend lines recently to make bulls a little nervous:
Nevertheless the resistance levels above do not look very firm to me so I am not looking at any possible short trades yet. However, do be aware that the level of 103.37 is confluent with both of the previous tops in the double top and today's daily pivot point; it also acted as minor support late last week. This may be a natural barrier and the beginning of a strong fresh fall in price.
The uptrend remains technically healthy as long as the lower bullish channel trend line holds, which should be provided by the support level just below it if necessary.