USD/JPY Signal Update
Yesterday’s signal was not triggered.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.25% on either or both recommended trades.
Entry should be made before 8am tomorrow morning London time
Short Trade
If the price touches 102.91 and then fails to rise higher than 102.97 before making an hourly close below 102.50 after and including 8am London time, enter short with a stop or market order 1 pip below today’s low with a stop loss 1 pip above today’s high.
Take 90% of the position as profit at the first touch of a bullish ascending trend line and take the remainder at 101.65.
Long Trade
Enter long at the next bar break of an hourly pin or strong outside bar rejecting and closing above the support level of 101.65. If this level is not touched and rejected by the same hourly bar, or if an hourly bar closes more than a few pips below this level, the trade is immediately invalidated and should not be taken.
Stop loss at the local swing low or 101.38, depending upon how close the entry is to 101.65. If the entry is very close, then the lower of the two should definitely be used.
Take profit on 90% of the position at the first test from below of the (by then) broken lower bullish trend line and leave the rest to ride.
USD/JPY Analysis
There is no highly important news expected regarding either the USD or JPY before 8am tomorrow London time. Therefore it is possible that the next twenty-four hours are going to be relatively quiet with relatively little price movement.
The uptrend is now in question as we have formed a triple top at around 103.40, from which the price has fallen fairly sharply. The support level at 102.82 has also been wiped out. Yesterday the daily chart printed a bearish outside bar that closed just above its lowest quartile, the low of which has already been broken this morning.
These are all bearish signs, however we have no inner trend lines for safe short entries and the wide bullish channel is still intact.
The major support level at 101.65 is strongly confluent with today’s daily S3 pivot point.
There is minor resistance at the daily pivot around 102.91.
My bias is only tilted towards shorts (unlike John Ursus’ weekly signal, which is strongly bearish and sees the price falling quite a long way from here) but due to the strength and confluence of 101.56 as support I am prepared to go for a long there if there is price action confirmation at that point, despite it being below a bullish trend line.