The AUD/USD pair went back and forth during the session on Thursday, essentially tracing the consolidation area that we have seen recently. The illiquid conditions certainly would’ve helped that, and the fact is that I believe the markets are going to be almost impossible to trade for more than anything larger than a scalp at this point. I still think the downward pressure is going to outweigh the upward pressure, so therefore I would prefer to sell, even on the short-term charts.
Above current trading is the 0.90 handle. That area should continue to be resistive, and I would be more than interested in selling at that area on a bearish looking candle. That of course is whether we can even get to that area, which quite frankly would not surprise me to be a bit too much for this market.
Nonfarm payroll and the gold markets.
Nonfarm payroll numbers will matter immensely in this market as he could decide what the US central bank does about quantitative easing. Any tapering in quantitative easing going forward will drive down the value of the gold markets, and the value of the US dollar higher. That will have an effect on the Australian dollar as well, as it does tend to follow the gold markets over the longer term. After all, the Australians export a massive amount of gold around the world, so the two markets tend to follow each other.
Going forward, you have to pay attention to what both of this market still, and understand that if the jobs number at the end of next week in the United States is stronger than anticipated, that will probably be the proverbial “straw that broke the camel’s back”, and push the Australian dollar much lower. In fact, that would more than likely have this market looking for the 0.85 level, and possibly even the 0.80 level given enough time. Buying is almost impossible until we get back above the 0.92 level, something I don’t expect to see any time in the near term. That being said, I am bearish of the Australian dollar.
