The WTI Crude Oil market initially fell during the session on Friday, but had enough support at the $96 level to bounce hard enough to form a hammer. The hammer of course suggested that the market is going to begin to climb overall, and on top of that, I see support in the form of the former gap at the $96 level back at the start of November. This market looks like one that is trying to find “its feet.” The market has struggles from time to time, but in the end, the market looks like it is going higher. I now have to think about the lows as a possible “double bottom.”
The $100 level above should continue to be resistive though, and it is there that I think the real fight begins in this market. The area between here and there has a lot of noise, and because of this I believe that pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities. The sellers certainly seem to have a lot of concerns all of the sudden, and I believe that the sellers will use those pullbacks in order to get out of bad positions, or to simply take the profits that the market has fallen so far.
The Federal Reserve
The FMOC rate decision on Wednesday will more than likely be the focus of traders in general. The FMOC and its comments will be more than likely the biggest mover of this market. This market is certainly going to be sensitive to monetary policy in the United States as the value of the US Dollar will continue to be one of the main factors in this market.
The jobs situation will more than likely be up front and center as well, as it could suggest what the future direction will be in the value of the greenback. The Federal Reserve has stated openly its concern about the jobs situation, and that being the case the statement will be important as it shows how close we are to tightening monetary policy in the US.
