EUR/USD Signal Update
Thursday’s signals were not triggered and expired.
Today’s EUR/USD Signal
Risk 0.50%.
Entry should be made between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade 1
Enter short at the next bar break of an hourly pin or engulfing bar rejecting and closing below the resistance zone of 1.3715/27. If this zone is not touched and rejected by the same hourly bar, or if an hourly bar closes above 1.3727, the trade is immediately invalidated and should not be taken.
Stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 30 pips in profit and let the trade ride.
Long Trade 1
Enter long between 8am and 9am London time if the price opens above 1.36767 at 8am. If the price falls more than 1 pip below the low established between 7am and 8am London time first, do not take the trade.
Stop loss 1 pip below the low established between 7am and 8am.
Take profit as soon as floating reward equals your risk.
EUR/USD Analysis
Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data was negative for the USD. Ignore the hype about the fall in the headline unemployment rate; the real story is the record low number of Americans participating in the workforce, which can be seen to have grim long-term implications. Having said that, the USD is not likely to collapse any time soon!
This drove the pair up modestly; with the long-term bullish trend line established 9 months ago I was talking about last week holding again on Friday.
Although the line of least resistance seems to be generally upwards, both technically and in terms of sentiment, I am not looking for longs until we get down to around 1.3500, which is too far away from today’s price. Therefore today I am only prepared to consider a cautious short off a zone that has recently pivoted between acting as support and resistance. The zone runs from 1.3715 to 1.3727. I have marked the zone with solid red horizontal lines in the chart below. The zone is just above today’s R1 pivot point:
There is no important news due today for either the EUR or for the USD, so today is likely to be fairly quiet, unless there is leftover sentiment from Friday’s data.