EUR/USD Signal Update
Monday’s signals were not triggered and expired.
Today’s EUR/USD Signal
Risk 0.50%.
Entry should be made between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade 1
If the price at 8am London time opens at or below 1.3539 and the previous hourly candle has a range of at least 13 pips, enter short with a sell stop order 1 pip below the 7am-8am hourly candle’s low. The order should be removed after 1 hour if not triggered, or if the price exceeds the high of the 7am-8am hourly candle.
Stop loss 1 pip above that hourly candle’s high.
Take profit when reward to risk reaches 1:1.
Short Trade 2
Enter short with a limit sell order at a touch of 1.3650.
Stop loss at 1.3705.
Move the stop to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit and let it run.
Long Trade 1
Enter long at the next bar break of an hourly pin or engulfing bar rejecting and closing above the support level of 1.3489. If this zone is not touched and rejected by the same hourly bar, or if an hourly bar closes above 1.3489, the trade is immediately invalidated and should not be taken.
Stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 20 pips in profit and let the trade ride.
EUR/USD Analysis
This pair broke down at the end of last week and almost touched 1.3500 yesterday, testing the final bullish trend line and trading below there for a few hours only. On Friday the price broke through 1.3650 which had been acting as support and this level is now likely to act as resistance going forward.
The dominant phenomenon in the chart now is the establishment of a narrowing bearish channel. We are currently towards the bottom of that channel and a crucial test is coming: will we decisively break down through the final bullish trend line and continue in the direction of the bearish channel, or will the bullish line hold and see us finally breaking up through the upper bearish channel trend line?
Below us there is what should be a good support level at 1.3489, which is quite close to today’s S2 pivot point:
Things could go either way, although recent price action is suggestive of an upwards move today. I agree with Christopher Lewis’ analysis yesterday that we are quite likely to find some support soon.
There is important news due today for the EUR at 10am London time (German ZEW Economic Sentiment), but nothing for the USD.