EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered and expired.
Today’s EUR/USD Signal
Risk 0.50%.
Entry should be made between 9am and 5pm London time today only.
If you can take the risk off any open trade at Noon London time today, do so.
Short Trade 1
Enter short at the next bar break of an hourly pin or engulfing bar rejecting and closing below the resistance level of 1.3715. If this level is not touched and rejected by the same hourly bar, or if an hourly bar closes more than a few pips above this level, the trade is immediately invalidated and should not be taken.
Stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 40 pips in profit and let the trade ride.
Long Trade 1
Enter long at the next bar break of an hourly pin or engulfing bar rejecting and closing above the support level of 1.3488.
Stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 40 pips in profit and let the trade ride.
EUR/USD Analysis
Following the bullish breakout earlier this week from the bearish channel that had held for several days, yesterday’s most important development was the fall to the long-term bullish trend line that has held for about the previous 9 months. The trend line held. There was not a very strong bounce, but the trend line did hold and at the time of writing we are moving up about 25 pips above the trend line.
Despite these two bullish signs, there does not seem to be any real strength in the EUR recently. It feels weak, certainly compared to the GBP, which is also awaiting equally important economic news.
For this reason I feel that anything could happen and am looking for either shorts or longs at the key levels identified previously. The level at 1.3488 looks particularly interesting as it is close to today’s S2 daily pivot, and the key round number of 1.3500.
There is very important news later today at 12:45pm London time for the EUR (Minimum Bid Rate) and 1:30pm (ECB Press Conference) and for the USD also at 1:30pm (Unemployment Claims). The pair is almost certainly going to have an extremely active New York session, but will probably remain fairly quiet beforehand.