Start Trading Now Get Started
Table of Contents
Affiliate Disclosure
Affiliate Disclosure DailyForex.com adheres to strict guidelines to preserve editorial integrity to help you make decisions with confidence. Some of the reviews and content we feature on this site are supported by affiliate partnerships from which this website may receive money. This may impact how, where and which companies / services we review and write about. Our team of experts work to continually re-evaluate the reviews and information we provide on all the top Forex / CFD brokerages featured here. Our research focuses heavily on the broker’s custody of client deposits and the breadth of its client offering. Safety is evaluated by quality and length of the broker's track record, plus the scope of regulatory standing. Major factors in determining the quality of a broker’s offer include the cost of trading, the range of instruments available to trade, and general ease of use regarding execution and market information.
toc-menu-hamburger.png
table of content

Table of Contents

toggle-toc.png

GBP/USD Monthly Forecast: Feb. 2014

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

 

Forecasts as far ahead as several weeks should always be taken with a pinch of salt as the underlying circumstances of the market may change fundamentally over such a long period of time. However, it is possible to have some predictability if there are no dramatic market events over the month.

This pair is established in a long-term uptrend which is beginning to show some signs of weakening. Despite this, it seems likely to continue upwards during February, especially if January closes above 1.6450. However there is strong range resistance at at 1.6750 and the price may well not be able to break past that level during the coming month.

Technical Analysis

The very long-term picture shows this pair has been ranging between roughly 1.6750 and 1.5000 over the past few years. Since last summer, the pair has been in a moderately strong uptrend that began at near the bottom of this range, with not a single monthly bearish engulfing candle having printed. We are now not far away from the key psychological level and range top of 1.6750. This suggests that we may not have the momentum to break up through this level yet. This month's candle is currently weakly bearish and will remain that way if the support level of 1.6450 holds. This would suggest a moderately bullish bias, at least up to 1.6750. All the above can be seen on the monthly chart below:

GBPUSD Monthly 13014

The weekly chart (not shown) shows that since last summer we have not had a single bearish engulfing candle. This is a sign that the uptrend is strong, but weakening, shown by the recent long upper candle wicks and the fact that week before last came very close to engulfing bearishly.

The daily chart shows a different story and suggests bearishness. The most recent valid engulfing candle was bearish. If this week closes below the support at 1.6450, it suggests we will have some kind of move downwards. If this level holds, we are more likely to continue upwards. So far, it looks like this level will hold. Additionally, we are still well established within a long-term bullish channel:

GBPUSD Daily 13014

If this month closes above 1.6450, that is a sign that we are likely to continue upwards to 1.6750 during February, although that may be the end of the uptrend, at least for a while. A monthly close below 1.6450 would suggest we revisit at least 1.6325, and that the uptrend may be over.

Adam Lemon
About Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

 

Most Visited Forex Broker Reviews