Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Long Trade 1
Enter long if a pin or engulfing bar is formed on the hourly chart when the price first reaches the zone between 103.91 and 103.73, on the break of the bar by 1 pip on the next bar provided the low holds. If a bar closes below 103.73, or the price remains within the zone for three consecutive hours, the trade is invalidated.
Stop loss at the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit. Take the risk off the trade at 104.45 and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Risk 0.50% and the trade may be taken before 5pm London time today only.
USD/JPY Analysis
This pair has taken a break from all its recent excitement, and has just been ranging choppily around over the past week or so. However, now it is time to get interested again. I agree with Christopher Lewis’ forecast that this pair is basically heading upwards.
The chart shows a pivotal zone has been formed that has acted as both support and resistance, forming around the support level I previously mentioned of 103.82.
Although the zone does not look extremely strong and is fairly well used, it is coming into confluence with a long-term bullish trend line today. Combine this with the fact that the pair is not really printing obvious resistance to see that it is time to look to get long again:
Navigation might become a little tricky if and when we get into the zone, so if you want a very specific level to look for, I see 103.75 as being that level.
There is no important news due today for the JPY. Concerning the USD, there are U.S. Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm London time, then Existing Home Sales at 3pm.