USD/JPY Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered and expired.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Long Trade 1
Enter long if a pin or engulfing bar is formed on the hourly chart when the price first reaches 101.63, on the break of the bar by 1 pip on the next bar. If a bar closes below 101.60, the trade is invalidated.
Stop loss at the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit. Take 50% of the position as profit at 102.70 and leave the remainder of the position to run to 103.75.
Risk 0.50% and the trade may be taken until 8am London time tomorrow.
Short Trade 1
Enter short if a pin or engulfing bar is formed on the hourly chart when the price first reaches 103.75, on the break of the bar by 1 pip on the next bar. If a bar closes above 103.75, the trade is invalidated.
Stop loss at the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit. Take 50% of the position as profit at 103.05 and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Risk 0.50% and the trade may be taken until 8am London time tomorrow.
USD/JPY Analysis
This pair rose somewhat yesterday, but the essential technical picture is unchanged. The likely support at 101.63 is now below the remaining long-term bullish trend line, but it should still prove to be supportive if reached. Above us is likely support turned to resistance at around 103.75. It is quite likely that one of these levels will be reached only after the US FOMC statement at 7pm London time this evening. As the price may become very volatile following this announcement, care should be taken with the entry, as a bar that touches the level but travels a huge distance to an entry point might not be appropriate.
There is no important news due today during the London session for either the JPY or the USD, and therefore it is likely to be a relatively quiet session. However this evening will see the release of the FOMC statement at 7pm London time, which should see the market move.