USD/JPY Signal Update
Yesterday’s signal was not triggered and expired. The price made its daily low only 5 pips from the support level identified, and then rose by 90 pips to hit the first profit target, but unfortunately did not fall low enough and behave the right way to get us into the trade.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
No signal is given today.
USD/JPY Analysis
There is important news today for the USD at 1:30pm (Trade Balance) but nothing for JPY so the pair might be quiet this morning and again later tonight.
There was bullishness last night towards the New York close after we approached the support level at 104.85 and the higher bullish trend line of the long-term channel we have been in since November. However the bullishness has to be tempered, at least in the short-term, by a bearish trend line visible on the shorter-term charts since 31st December. It produced a sharp fall yesterday when touched though it needed to be adjusted upwards a little, and has held so far this morning:
Therefore we are currently within a triangle that is approaching its end. It seems a bearish sign that the angle of the bearish line is not very steep, and that the bearish moves since the New Year have been more impulsive than the bullish moves, so I am not inclined to look for a long entry on any retest of a bullish breakout just yet.
I also do not want to look for a long today at a level which came within 5 pips of being hit yesterday. So today there is enough doubt to stay out, at least for the time being. There might well be an opportunity tomorrow to get long if the triangle holds until 8am London time, by when its trend lines would have become more significant. Alternatively, things might turn bearish or more simply become just a messy consolidation.