USD/JPY Signal Update
No signal was given yesterday.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.50%.
Entry should be made between 1:15pm today and 8am tomorrow London time.
Long Trade 1
Enter long with a limit order at a touch of 103.85, placing the stop loss at 103.43.
Move the stop to break even when the trade is 40 pips in profit. Take 50% of the profit at 104.97 and leave the remainder to ride.
USD/JPY Analysis
Unfortunately yesterday I wrote “I am not inclined to look for a long entry on any retest of a bullish breakout just yet” (of any bullish breakout from the triangle). There was just such an opportunity last night following a breakout and retest of the triangle which would have produced an excellent long trade, as can be seen on the chart below:
It is a bit surprising that we have had such a move already, before the key USD data begins to be released later today.
This is a sign that the market is very bullish on this pair. I do not see an obvious level to sell at, nor do I want to be short yet of this pair.
I am reinstating the key support level of 103.85, which might just get hit at the end of a dramatic downwards move following the news events later today. As it is a long way away, I am looking for a long touch trade at 103.85 following the first important news item later today.
I am not giving this as a signal, but an alternative long entry could be at another retest and rejection of the broken upper triangle trend line.
There is very important news later today at 1:15pm London time for the USD (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change) and again at 7pm London time (FOMC Meeting Minutes).