EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered and expired.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Entry should be made before 5pm London time today only.
Long Trade 1
Enter long with a stop buy order at a next bar break of an hourly pin or engulfing bar after a first touch and rejection of 1.3551. The trade is invalidated once an hourly bar closes below 1.3550.
Stop loss at the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit and let it run. Take 75% of the position as profit at 1.3620.
Short Trade 1
Enter short with a stop sell order at a next bar break of an hourly pin or engulfing bar after a first touch and rejection of 1.3738. The trade is invalidated once an hourly bar closes above this level.
Stop loss at the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even when the trade is 25 pips in profit and let it run. Take 50% of the position as profit at 1.3655.
EUR/USD Analysis
Yesterday saw a sharp move down after comments from the ECB, with the price reaching to just 10 pips above the resistance level I identified at 1.3551. However following that the price recovered strongly and it now back above 1.3630 and approaching 1.3650. What is most interesting about this move is that the bullish bounce came off the old bullish trend line that was broken some time ago. There have been two bounces now off this trend line in recent days, so it seems to still be an active an important trend line, which is worth noting for possible future use.
Technically, we are re-established in a bearish channel, but within a longer-term uptrend. We are now moving into the point of a triangle, so the direction we break out of this triangle is going to be crucial to the future movement of this pair:
The daily chart suggests a short-term move up, as yesterday printed a large bullish outside bar. However, as we are in a triangle and approaching the point, this is very difficult to predict. We are some distance now from major support or resistance, so we may consolidate for a day or two.
I do not see any reliable support or resistance levels for about 100 pips in either direction from the current price. I agree with Christopher Lewis’s assessment that this pair simply has no clear directional impetus at the moment.
There is no important news due today for the EUR. Concerning the USD, there are important data due at 1:30pm London time: Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims. This means we are quite likely to have a quiet early London session and a more active New York session.