The USD/JPY pair fell during the session on Monday, testing the 102 level. This area has been supportive in the past, and most interestingly it has shown a hammer for the session on Friday. Because of this, we would expect the buyers to step in and support this pair, so selling isn’t necessarily going to be very easy at this point. I think that seeing a supportive candle on the daily timeframe is probably what we need in order to start buying again, and as a result I will do so as soon as I see a supportive candle in a break higher. We got that supportive candle last Friday, but we just simply didn’t get the breakout higher.
With that being said, I believe that the absolute “floor” in this market is down at the 100 level. I don’t think that will get down there, but if we do I would be more apt to buy that pullback even without a daily candle. This is something I rarely do, but I recognize the significance of the level, and of course the fact that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the larger move higher.
Jobs numbers will continue to be in focus, as will the Bank of Japan.
The jobs numbers out of America warrant necessarily stellar on Friday, and as a result this pair didn’t get the blues that one would’ve hoped. However, I believe that the job situation in the United States will continue to improve, and on top of that the Bank of Japan certainly is going to continue to be ultra-easy with its monetary policy. Given enough time, I believe the moving parts in this marketplace will continue to propel the US dollar higher against the Japanese yen, aiming for the 105 level.
The market of course fell during Monday, but I believe this is just simple meandering at the moment. There is no real catalyst in one direction or the other currently, and as a result we are to simply treading water. I am still bullish of this pair long-term though.
