The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the session on Wednesday, as the US dollar continue to go higher against most currencies around the world. This was exacerbated as the Federal Reserve suggested that short-term interest rates should head towards the 1% level by the end of next year, and as a result there was a repricing of interest-rate differentials around the world. This pair of course got hit, simply because the US dollar was so strong.
At the end of the day, you have to look at the fact that there is a down trending line just above that I have been watching. It comes off of the monthly chart, and the fact that we fell from the 1.39 region tells me that perhaps we will continue to grind lower over time as we have since the beginning of the financial crisis.
The Europeans don’t like an extremely strong Euro either.
Mario Draghi recently stated that he was very uncomfortable with the Euro going higher, and as a result it appears that the market has a bit of a ceiling in it at the moment. I look at this market and suggest that perhaps we have seen the high for a while, but I don’t necessarily want to sell this market until we get below the 1.38 handle. That’s because there is an uptrend line that we are pressing up against from the top, and as a result I would feel much more comfortable shorting once that happens. In the meantime, I believe that we could see a little bit of a bounce but the fact that the session was so negative leads me to believe that there will be continued downward pressure in this market.
On top of that, we broke the bottom of two consecutive hammers, essentially making it a “double hanging man.” That is very rare, and is most certainly a very bearish sign. With that being the case, I have no interest in buying this pair at the moment, and will look for opportunities to sell going forward.
