The EUR/USD pair did almost nothing during the Friday session, which of course isn’t much of a surprise considering that the Good Friday holiday would have had most European and North American banks closed. With that, liquidity was almost nonexistent. I have to look at this chart in its entirety, and take a look at the previous days as well to garner some type of information as to where we may go next.
I can give you 1 million reasons why I hate this pair right now, but I will stick with just a handful of one’s that are most obvious. The first thing that I see is that the last couple of candles have been shooting stars. That tells me that this pair once the pullback, but a problem that I have is that the 1.38 handle just below has been supportive. On top of that, we have just recently had a very impulsive move higher, although we did gap lower at the beginning of the week. So we have conflicting signals all the way around, but that isn’t necessarily out of character for this pair since the beginning of the financial crisis really.
Continue choppiness, regardless of which way we go.
No matter what happens in this pair, I think it’s going to be choppy. Because of that, I have no interest in trading. However, I know that a lot of you out there do want to trade this pair, so I’m basing my analysis on what I would do if somebody forced me to be involved in what I think is a fairly difficult market right now.
It really comes down to the 1.38 handle in my opinion. If we can get below that level on a daily close, I think we will head to the 1.37 handle, although I wouldn’t expect an easy time of it. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the shooting star, we will more than likely try the 1.3950 level, which on a daily close above the 1.40 level would mean that we have completely cleared a downtrend line off the monthly trend. If that happens, it’s a buy-and-hold situation.
