EUR/USD Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals expired without being triggered.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%
Entry before 5pm London time
Long Trade 1
Enter long when confirmed by H1 price action at the first touch of the major bullish trend line currently at around 1.3693.
Put a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3725.
Remove 25% of the position at each of the following levels: 1.3725, 1.3750, 1.3775, and 1.3800.
Long Trade 2
Enter long when confirmed by H1 price action at the first touch of 1.3650.
Put a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.3690.
Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.3690 and leave the rest of the position to run.
EUR/USD Analysis
Yesterday the price rose, and by more than would usually be expected on a Monday with no significant news releases. At around the New York open the price got close to 1.3750 but so far has been unable to rise any further to reach this psychological level. At the time of writing the price may be beginning a move down.
It is not surprising that there has been a move up as we have come off the identified resistance level at 1.3695 and a long-term bullish trend line last Friday, so the line of least resistance has been up. However, there is probably resistance above 1.3750 and at around 1.3800 so a move up beyond these levels is likely to be difficult and take some time. It is really down to which breaks first, 1.3800 or the trend line below us, which will probably determine the intermediate direction of this pair.
We are in a long-term uptrend but we have reached the tip of a triangle on the higher time frames, suggesting there will soon be a decisive break out. The monthly and weekly charts show bearish candlesticks, although on the daily yesterday was a bullish engulfing bar, suggesting we will push above 1.3750 today.
Beyond 1.3800, the next flipped resistance level is at 1.3878. I disagree with Christopher Lewis who writes today that a breach of 1.3800 should see the price continue to 1.3950.
There is no high-impact news due today concerning the EUR. At 3pm London time there will be data pertaining to the USD, the JOLTS Job Openings. It will probably be a fairly quiet day in advance of tomorrow’s FOMC Statement in the USA.