USD/JPY Signal Update
Last Thursday’s signal was not triggered and expired as the price did not reach 102.97 that day.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.75%
Entry may be made at any time before 8am London time Tuesday (tomorrow) morning.
Long Trade 1
Buy if confirmed by H1 price action at the trend line which is currently at around 102.91. Do not take this trade if the price exceeds 103.25 at any time since 8am London time.
Place a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 103.25.
Take off 50% of the position as profit at 103.25 and leave the remainder to run until 103.90.
Short Trade 1
Sell if confirmed by H1 price action at 104.00...
Place a stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 103.55.
Take off 50% of the position as profit at 103.55 and leave the remainder to run until 103.00.
USD/JPY Analysis
Following last Friday’s NFP data which was slightly disappointing for the USD, the JPY strengthened at the expense of the USD. We have now almost returned to the broken triangle trend line. We just about hit the resistance turned support level at 102.98 a little earlier and at the time of writing we have so far had a bullish bounce of about 15 pips.
There is nice confluence below with today’s GMT S1 daily pivot point, the broken trend line, and the support level at about 102.97. If we return there without the price making much more of a bullish bounce, this will be a good area at which to seek a long trade.
Above us the 104.00 level looks like it is probably going to be a major top, so a return up there would be a good indication to look for a short trade, if confirmed by price action. Last Thursday I wrote “The logical target for at least part of the position would be the recent swing high and round number confluence at 104.00.”
There is no high-impact news due today concerning the USD. However at 4am London time tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan will give its Monetary Policy Statement and Interest Rate decision, at which point this pair should become much more volatile for some time.