The WTI Crude Oil markets had a slightly positive session on Thursday, as the $103 level did in fact offer support. I had mentioned that there was a gap below that could continue to push market higher, and as a result that prediction has come true, at least for this particular session. The real fight of course is above at the $105 level, which is the top of the ascending triangle, or at least the potential ascending triangle that I have drawn on the chart.
With that being said, I believe that ultimately we will breakout. It doesn’t necessarily mean that we will do it immediately, but that we could do it eventually. I think if you look at the shape of the ascending triangle, if it does end up being true there is quite a bit of room it could move sideways before it would essentially negate itself. In other words, we could be looking at a very tight market for the near-term.
Higher lows
Regardless, I see higher lows being the theme in this market, and as a result I simply cannot short it. With that, it’s simply a “buy only” type of market. I don’t think that the market is going to be able to hold on to any selloff for any great length of time, so going forward I believe that each PIP should provide a nice buying opportunity, although you may have to look at short time frames in order to identify them. Nonetheless, you have to look at the totality of the market, therefore the overall tone and trend it needs to be paid attention to. I believe that the uptrend line at the bottom of the triangle should continue to keep the market somewhat afloat, meaning that there will be more and more buyers as time goes on. Ultimately, the $105 level giving way will allow the market to go as high as $113 based upon the measurement that I have taken on this triangle. With that, I am very bullish and really cannot think of selling this market until we break below the $100 level, something that does not look very likely.
