The EUR/USD pair rose during the session on Monday, as the Americans and British both took the holiday off. That being the case, I’m not overly impressed by the fact that we held here, I think it’s simply a bit of a relief rally if you well. However, I think that ultimately this market will be a “sell the rallies” type of market for the short term, and I think that any move towards a 1.37 level will fact be met with selling pressure. On top of that, a break down below the 1.36 level almost guarantees a move to the 1.35 handle, which for my money is a much more significant support area on the longer-term charts anyway.
I believe that we are trying to carve out what will end up being the summer range, but with the European Central Bank meeting coming up here in the next couple of weeks, the markets may be a little directionless as people are starting to put a significant amount of importance on any statement coming out of that meeting. With that, I would suggest that perhaps short-term move should be all you focus on, but that’s truthfully been the way of this market for a couple of years now. In other words, that’s not a real stretch.
500 PIP range? Or one of the other smaller ones?
For me, I think it’s only a matter try to figure out if we are going to be stuck between 1.35 on the bottom, and 1.40 on the top, or perhaps some combination of 1.37 and one of those 2 figures. This summer will be range bound, and as a result I need to see how this market reacts to the 1.37 handle. As far as trading is concerned, as a suggested above I’m only looking to short-term trades at the moment, but I think once we get past this ECB meeting, you might have the ability to hang onto a trade for several weeks at a time. I’m not looking for fireworks, I’m just looking for this market to figure out where it wants to bounce around.
