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GBP/USD Signal- May 21, 2014

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

GBP/USD Signal Update

Yesterday’s signals were never triggered as although the price did reach 1.6864, there was no bearish break on the H1 chart to show a follow-through for a short entry. It would however have worked as a touch trade for about 30 easy pips and was a correct call of the high of the London session by just a few pips.

Today’s GBP/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Entries may be made only between 8am and Noon London time today.

Long Trade 1

Go long after confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart following the first touch of 1.6748.

Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.6775.

Remove 25% of the position as profit at 1.6800 and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade 1

Go short after confirming bearish price action on the H1 chart following the first touch of 1.6864.

Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 1.6840.

Remove 50% of the position as profit at 1.6800 and the remainder at 1.6755.

GBP/USD Analysis

Yesterday I wrote that “we should still be expecting the upwards trend to continue” and this move sis continue gently after the early news spike pushed the price up to 1.6864, from which it fell sharply initially and then recovered.

The news release at 9:30am London time might well spike the price again either to 1.6864 or 1.6750, but these would be risky touch trades. A long at 1.6750 would be less risky as it is further away and as we are in an uptrend. However I would be looking for price action confirmation before taking any trades, and I would only look to enter before Noon.

The support at 1.6748 is still extremely confluent with the long-term bullish trend line and should act as great support. Above us there is a level at 1.6864 which should be treated very conservatively, as it was hit yesterday, but if the price action is really bearish there it might be good for a short.

We can note also from the chart that the broken inner trend line is now acting as resistance, so a bearish pin bar closing below and rejecting both that and the level at 1.6864 would be a better short signal.

GBPUSD Signal 52114

There are high-impact news releases scheduled today for both the GBP and the USD. At 9:30am London time there will be a release of Retail Sales Data and the Monetary Policy Committee’s voting records on the Official Bank Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility. Later at 7pm, the FOMC statement will be released. It is likely therefore to be a volatile day for this pair, but quite probably a calm New York session before 7pm.

Adam Lemon
About Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

 

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