USD/JPY Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals expired without being triggered.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.75%
Entries may be made either before 5pm today New York time, or between 8am Tokyo time and 8am London time tomorrow (Friday).
Short Trade 1
Short entry following confirming bearish price action on the H1 chart after a first touch of 103.00.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 102.75.
Remove 25% of the position as profit at 102.75, then 50% of the original position size at 102.50, and then leave the remainder of the position to ride
Long Trade 1
Long entry following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart after a first touch of 101.91.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 102.29.
Remove 25% of the position as profit at 102.29, then 50% of the original position size at 102.50, and then leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade 2
Go long following confirming bullish price action on the H1 chart after a first touch of the long-term bullish trend line currently at around 101.37.
Place a stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 101.83.
Remove 25% of the position as profit at 101.94, then 50% of the original position size at 102.50, and then leave the remainder of the position to ride.
USD/JPY Analysis
Yesterday we had a move down within the recent range, following the bearish pin bar the day before that. In contrast to all the exciting action on the EUR and GBP dollar pairs, this pair remains sleepy, and ranges quietly within a very slight upwards trend.
Above us there is minor resistance at 103.00 and 104.00. The support below us at 101.91 is beginning to look a little weak but seems to hold under quiet conditions. I would still take a long trade here if it looked good but I would be very careful about doing so before any big news events.
It is likely to get really interesting only in the area below 101.50 which should be very supportive, especially the very long-term bullish trend line. A rejection from both of the trend lines simultaneously would be perfect for a long trade. It is quite likely we will not get there today however; it will probably take a bearish non-farm payroll data release tomorrow to drive the price down there.
There is no high-impact news due today concerning the JPY. Regarding the USD, at 1:30pm London time the Chair of the Fed is speaking and there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data. Later at 3pm there will be a release of ISM manufacturing data. As there is no data due before the New York open and as we have the non-farm payroll data due tomorrow it is likely to be a quiet morning.