USD/JPY Signal Update
Yesterday’s signals expired without being triggered as the price never reached 101.41 and did not print confirming bearish price action when it hit 102.18.
Today’s USD/JPY Signal
Risk 0.75%
Entries may be made either before 5pm today New York time, or between 8am Tokyo time and 8am London time tomorrow (Wednesday).
Long Trade 1
Long entry at the first touch of 101.45.
Put a stop loss at 101.15.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 101.90 and leave it to run.
Short Trade 1
Go short following confirming bearish price action on the H1 chart after a first touch of 103.00.
Put a stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even when the price reaches 102.70.
Take off 50% of the position as profit at 102.45, and then leave the remainder of the position to run.
USD/JPY Analysis
The pair has been quite active over the past day, powering up to reach a high of 102.35. It has been one of the strongest movers in the Forex universe over this period.
Looking at the bigger technical picture, we had a double bottom forming at an intersection of two major bullish trend lines, including a very long-term bullish trend line. I was waiting for this line to be hit on the H1 chart, but in the H4 chart below it looks like it was already hit and unfortunately it seems this was the line that the big market players were looking at for their long entries.
We have also cut up through what was possible resistance at 102.18, and I do not see any more flipped resistance levels before 103.00, so we may now climb all the way up there over coming days. It will make sense to have a long bias in the meantime, at least until the bullish trend line below us is properly broken.
We also probably have soft support below us at 102.00 which could be a good level at which to look for some short-term long trades.
I would buy at a sudden spike down to the bullish trend line at 101.45, and also look for a short at 103.00 but that would need to be confirmed. It is unlikely that we will reach either of these levels over the next 24 hours.
There are no high-impact news released scheduled today concerning the JPY. At 1:30pm London time there will be a release of US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data.